EURUSD flirts with 1.1800, after a rebound from early April levels, amid the initial Asian session on Thursday.

The major currency pair bounced off an ascending support line from November the previous day but the looming bearish cross, a condition where 50-DMA drops below 200-DMA and signals further downside, tested the recovery moves.

Given the downward sloping Momentum line, coupled with the failures to recover, EUR/USD stays ready to welcome the bears should the quote closes below the stated support line, near 1.1775. In doing so, the pair will also confirm the bearish cross and will be well-set to challenge the yearly low near the 1.1700 thresholds. Following that, lows marked during September 2022 and high of March 2022, respectively around 1.1615 and 1.1500, could gain the market’s attention.

Sell low, cover even lower? That could be the best strategy for trading the European Central Bank’s upcoming decision with EUR/USD. While the common currency has been holding up better than some of its peers, this could be due to pre-ECB tensions rather than any material advantage.

Apart from the theoretical long-term goals, the most recent data suggest price rises are decelerating once again. The headline Consumer Price Index dipped to 1.9% in June, compared with 5.4% in the US. Core CPI edged lower to 0.9% – and has never received a post-pandemic boom. It stands at 4.5% in the US.